Historical prediction ledger

Beta · Probabilistic ForecastsBeta forecasts are probabilistic estimates. Availability depends on current data and model support.

Historical archive. This ledger contains historical forecasts and newly recorded Beta forecasts. New eligible 1H / 24H Beta forecasts are recorded before their outcomes occur; historical records remain available.

How to read this ledger

Rise probability: The model’s estimated chance that the price would rise over the selected horizon. 55% is not an accuracy score or a profit guarantee.
Median forecast price: A model-derived median, when supported. Legacy return estimates are not converted into median prices. Unavailable means no supported price estimate is supplied; it does not mean the price is zero.
Forecast / actual change: Predicted / recorded price change from the reference price. These figures exclude fees, spread and execution costs. A dash means no actual outcome is recorded.
Direction check: For Beta records, Matched / Missed checks the most likely probability event against the outcome; unchanged belongs to P(down). Historical records retain their original direction definition. It does not measure trading profitability.
Unverified records: Not due yet: the horizon has not ended. Overdue · unverified: the horizon ended and a recorded outcome or price evidence exists, but no direction check was recorded. Price evidence missing: no outcome and no market snapshot within 15 minutes after expiry in the serving database; older source archives may contain additional data.
Model version: Open Forecast details for the model identifier, registration date and forecast due time. The registration date is not the publication time. The timestamp inside a version identifier was generated during the historical training run.
Artwork: A cube outline means identified artwork is unavailable. Generic paper images are not presented as custom item artwork.

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Historical prediction ledger

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Historical prediction ledger

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